Pakistan Oil Field Result Key Highlights: KASB Research

Pakistan Oil Feild Result Key Highlights: KASB Research

POL posted FY13 net earnings of PRs45.78/sh and DPS of PRs45, which is well below ours and market expectation of EPS of PRs49.83. On the other hand, Final DPS of PRs25 (FY13 PRs45) is in line with our expectation.

Sales increased by 1% YoY on the back of Pak rupee devaluation and slight increase in Oil production of 1%. On the flipside, Gas production was down by 13%

Higher seismic studies conducted by company JV partners increased the exploration cost due to which our earnings expectations were missed

Other income of the company came lower by 23% YoY (33%QoQ).

It is worth mentioning here that POL’s payout ratio for the last 2 years is 100%

Our PO remains intact at PRs587, with FY14E EPS of PRs66.1 (DPS of PRs58.0). We maintain our Buy on POL.

Going forward, we believe that the company earnings will increase as full impact of Makori East-II, Mamikhel and Maramzai will be realized. Also commencement of Makori GPF by the end of CY13 will bode well for the company.

 

 

	1Q13	2Q13	3Q13	4Q13	QoQ	FY12	FY13	YoY
Net Sales	6,646	7,098	7,680	7,454	-3%	28,624	28,878	1%
Operating Exp.	1,644	1,825	2,008	2,090	4%	6,262	7,566	21%
Royalty	641	644	757	691	-9%	2,731	2,734	0%
EBITDAX	4,442	4,716	5,014	4,608	-8%	19,909	18,313	-8%
Exploration cost	201	518	415	659	59%	594	1,792	202%
Other Income	393	970	355	236	-33%	2,547	1,954	-23%
PBT	3,609	4,001	3,926	3,015	-23%	17,376	14,551	-16%
PAT	2,566	3,098	2,961	2,204	-26%	11,853	10,828	-9%
EPS	10.8	13.1	12.5	9.3	-26%	50.1	45.8	-9%
DPS	0	20	0.0	25.0		52.5	45.0
Key ratios						0
Realized Oil (US$/bbl)	111	107	91	96	5%	96	89	-7%
Gas (US$/mcf)	3	3	3.6	3.5	-1%	3.2	3.6	10%
Dubai Light (US$/bbl)	119	108	107	111	4%	111	105	-5%
Production						0
Oil(bpd)	4,244	4,244	4390	4987	14%	4657	4705	1%
Gas(mmcfd)	0	79	77	71	-7%	89	77	-13%
Total(mmboe)	0.0	1.6	1.5	1.5	-2%	1.8	1.7	-5%
Key ratios						0.00
Royalty (%)	12%	12%	12%	12%	7%	12%	11%	-7%
Effective tax rate (%)	29%	29%	23%	25%	9%	32%	27%	-15%